CurrenlyzerHow Often Does the First London Hour Set the Day’s Direction?
Over the last 90 days the day closed in the same direction as the 07:00 UTC hour for about half of the days for most major pairs, which is close to a coin flip. The table shows each pair and the number of days counted.
A popular idea says that the direction of the first London hour tells you the direction of the day. It is easy to test: compare the 07:00 UTC hourly candle with the daily candle of the same day.
The result is a statistic about the past. It is not a signal and not advice.
How often the day agreed with the first London hour
| Pair | Days counted | Same direction |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 62 | 77% |
| GBP/USD | 61 | 80% |
| USD/JPY | 63 | 62% |
| USD/CHF | 62 | 65% |
| AUD/USD | 63 | 60% |
| USD/CAD | 62 | 74% |
| NZD/USD | 61 | 69% |
A coin flip would give 50%. Numbers close to 50% say the first London hour does not decide the day; numbers well above or below it would be worth a closer look, but a few weeks of data move these percentages a lot, which is why the day count is shown. This is a statistic of what happened, not a signal for what will.
Why this is a statistic and not a signal
A percentage near 50% says there is no useful relationship; a percentage well away from 50% says there was one in the last 90 days, but 90 days of data are only about 60 trading days, so the number moves a lot with a few days. We show the number of days next to each pair for that reason. This table is not a recommendation to follow the first London hour.
How we calculate it
For each day we compare the direction of the hourly candle that starts at 07:00 UTC (close against open) with the direction of the daily candle (close against open). Days on which either is exactly flat are left out. The percentage is the number of days on which both pointed the same way, divided by the number of days counted.
How to check this in Currenlyzer
- Open the symbol in the analyzer. The hour table starts with today’s weekday.
- Choose the weekday you trade and the history: 7 days are open to everyone, 14, 30 and 60 days come with a free account.
- Look at the number of days counted under each hour. An hour with few days is a hint, not a pattern.
How we count
The numbers come from the live price feed of Currenlyzer: one-minute prices are built into hourly and daily candles, all in UTC. The range of a candle is its high minus its low. We use finished candles only, and we leave out hours when the market is closed and days that are too thin to count (the first hours of the Sunday open, short holiday days), so a closed hour is never averaged in as zero. Averages cover the last 30 days for the daily range and the last 60 days for hours, unless the text says otherwise. Pips follow the dashboard: one pip is 0.0001 on most pairs, 0.01 on yen pairs and 0.10 on gold. The same method is used in the dashboard.
Frequently asked questions
Does the first London hour decide the day?
In the last 90 days it agreed with the day about half the time for most majors, so it does not decide it.
Why 07:00 UTC?
It is the first London hour in Currenlyzer’s session definition.
How many days are counted?
The table shows it for each pair.
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Historical statistics for information only. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past patterns do not predict future moves. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of loss. Read the full disclaimer.